Prices of Risk Estimation for Commodity Factors

ABSTRACT This study investigates the prices of risk in cross‐sectional commodity futures portfolios using a three‐pass regression approach that is robust to model specification. We find that the prices of risk for commodity basis and value factors are important, with values of 1.2% and 2.0% per month, respectively. Moreover, we observe that the commodity factors do not price cross‐sectional equity portfolios, resulting in a combination of the equity market and commodity factor portfolios achieving a high Sharpe ratio. Additionally, we demonstrate that the equity market factor has recently become more strongly associated with the cross‐sectional commodity futures portfolios, suggesting the effects of financialization.

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Journal
Journal of Futures Markets
Published
2025-08-22
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.70032
Primary Topic
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Type
article
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article

Prices of Risk Estimation for Commodity Factors

Kei Nakagawa, Ryuta Sakemoto
Journal of Futures Markets
Market Dynamics and Volatility
article

Prices of Risk Estimation for Commodity Factors

Kei Nakagawa, Ryuta Sakemoto
article en

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study investigates the prices of risk in cross‐sectional commodity futures portfolios using a three‐pass regression approach that is robust to model specification. We find that the prices of risk for commodity basis and value factors are important, with values of 1.2% and 2.0% per month, respectively. Moreover, we observe that the commodity factors do not price cross‐sectional equity portfolios, resulting in a combination of the equity market and commodity factor portfolios achieving a high Sharpe ratio. Additionally, we demonstrate that the equity market factor has recently become more strongly associated with the cross‐sectional commodity futures portfolios, suggesting the effects of financialization.

Journal of Futures Markets
Hokkaido University of Science (JP), Hokkaido University of Education (JP), Hokkaido University (JP), Tokyo Metropolitan University (JP)
Openalex Percentile: Top 70%
Market Dynamics and Volatility
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Prices of Risk Estimation for Commodity Factors — Kei Nakagawa, Ryuta Sakemoto · Journal of Futures Markets (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS