A linear model for LNG transport via existing pipeline and re-gasification terminals

Abstract This paper presents a linear programming (LP) model for optimizing the transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) through existing regasification terminals and Europe’s cross-border pipeline network. While pipelines offer fixed, efficient, and direct transport over land, LNG shipping provides flexibility and scalability, particularly for regions lacking pipeline connectivity. The model is demonstrated through five different case studies. Each case involves the identification of optimal LNG supply strategies from Qatar to the European Union under Russian gas disruption scenarios of 25 %, 50 %, and 75 % (equivalent to 34, 68, and 102 MTPA, respectively). The results show that the model prioritizes deliveries to destinations with available regasification capacity and low transport costs, with key importers including Turkey, Italy, Spain, and northern corridor countries. Annual network costs range from $8.1–8.8 billion for a 25 % disruption to $21–24 billion for a 75 % disruption, with liquefaction as the largest cost component. Strategic supply routes via southern, northern, and Baltic corridors were identified to enhance EU energy security, though fully replacing Russian gas would require contract adjustments and infrastructure agreements within the EU. The findings highlight the importance of integrating LNG shipping with pipeline capacity and fostering partnerships with intermediary countries.