Life Expectancy Loss and Recovery by Age and Sex Following Catastrophic Events in Europe during the 19th and 20th Centuries

Following catastrophic events such as pandemics or wars, a systematic loss in life expectancy at birth ( $$\:{e}_{0}$$ ) can be observed. This study aims to estimate the time required for $$\:{e}_{0}$$ to recover after mortality crises and to identify which age groups contribute to the decline and assist in restoring pre-crisis levels. Focusing on major European pandemics and wars of the 19th and 20th centuries, we used data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD). Arriaga’s decomposition was applied to analyze $$\:{e}_{0}$$ values before the sharpest decline and at the recovery point. Events were categorized into pandemics and non-pandemics, and further stratified by sex. Various statistical tests were used to ensure valid comparisons. The analysis is grounded in demographic resilience, understood as the capacity of a population to return to previous $$\:{e}_{0}$$ levels after a mortality shock. This approach enables comparison between events of different types and historical contexts. Our findings show that the largest $$\:{e}_{0}$$ declines occurred during the World Wars. No significant differences were found by event type or sex. Youth and children emerged as the main contributors to the decline and recovery of $$\:{e}_{0}$$ following catastrophic events.