Seizing windows of opportunity in green global value chains: the role of industrial policies in middle-income countries

Abstract This paper investigates how middle-income countries can leverage industrial policies to participate in and upgrade within renewable energy global value chains. We distinguish between deployment and manufacturing chains and examine three sectors, solar photovoltaic, wind, and biomass power, across 12 middle-income countries. Using fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis, we identify key combinations of national preconditions and industrial policies—demand-side, supply-side and technology-focused—that enable different participation and upgrading trajectories. While participation is widespread in both chains, upgrading is more prominent in deployment, which presents lower entry barriers. In contrast, upgrading in manufacturing requires stronger sectoral knowledge, larger markets, and robust technology policies. Our results offer actionable insights for policymakers, emphasizing how targeted and context-specific industrial policy mixes are essential to seize windows of opportunity in these green global value chains. The study contributes to the literature on value chains and industrial policy by offering new comparative evidence and practical guidance for latecomer economies seeking to build capabilities and competitiveness in the green economy.