Impacts of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability and Landscape Connectivity of the Amur Tiger in the Sino-Russian Transboundary Region

The Amur tiger (<i>Panthera tigris altaica</i>) is a flagship and umbrella species of forest ecosystems in northeastern Asia. Climate change is profoundly and irreversibly affecting wildlife habitat suitability, especially for large mammals. To effectively protect the Amur tiger, it is necessary to understand the impact of climate change on the quality and the connectivity of its habitat. We used the species distribution models combined with the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios to predict current and future changes in habitats and corridors. We found the following: (1) The total area of the Amur tiger's suitable habitat currently amounts to approximately 4941.94 km², accounting for 27.64% of the study area represented by two adjacent national parks. Among these habitats, the highly suitable areas are mainly located on the both sides of the Sino-Russian border. The landscape connectivity remains relatively stable, and the degree of fragmentation in highly suitable habitats is low. (2) Although the suitable habitat of the Amur tiger shows an expansion trend under most climate scenarios (excluding SSP3-7.0), the area of suitable habitat within the entire study region does not increase significantly. Therefore, we should implement conservation measures to facilitate the continued expansion of suitable habitat for the Amur tiger. The quantity and length of landscape connectivity corridors are expected to vary in response to changes in core habitat patches, while the centroid of highly suitable habitats is also expected to shift to different extents. In such circumstances, new ecological corridors need to be constructed, while existing natural ecological corridors should be preserved.