Federated Hybrid Graph Attention Network with Two-Step Optimization for Electricity Consumption Forecasting

Electricity demand forecasting is essential for smart grid management, yet it presents challenges due to the dynamic nature of consumption trends and regional variability in usage patterns. While federated learning (FL) offers a privacy-preserving solution for handling sensitive, region-specific data, traditional FL approaches struggle when local datasets are limited, often leading models to overfit noisy peak fluctuations. Additionally, many regions exhibit stable, periodic consumption behaviors, further complicating the need for a global model that can effectively capture diverse patterns without overfitting. To address these issues, we propose Federated Hybrid Graph Attention Network with Two-step Optimization for Electricity Consumption Forecasting (FedHMGAT), a hybrid modeling framework designed to balance periodic trends and numerical variations. Specifically, FedHMGAT leverages a numerical structure graph with a Gaussian encoder to model peak fluctuations as dynamic covariance features, mitigating noise-driven overfitting, while a multi-scale attention mechanism captures periodic consumption patterns through hybrid feature representation. These feature components are then fused to produce robust predictions. To enhance global model aggregation, FedHMGAT employs a two-step parameter aggregation strategy: first, a regularization term ensures parameter similarity across local models during training, and second, adaptive dynamic fusion at the server tailors aggregation weights to regional data characteristics, preventing feature dilution. Experimental results verify that FedHMGAT outperforms conventional FL methods, offering a scalable and privacy-aware solution for electricity demand forecasting.