Exploring Consumers' Panic Buying Behavior: An Agent-Based Model for Supply Chain Management in Crisis Situations

Panic buying is a common response to crisis situations, leading to sudden surges in consumer demand and supply chain disruptions. Numerous incidents of panic buying in various countries at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in stockouts and supply chain disruptions, exemplify this phenomenon. Such behavior arises as consumers strive to mitigate the unfavorable effects of supply disruptions. This research aims to comprehend how individuals respond to uncertainties concerning supply chain inventory levels. The objective is to unravel the complex interplay of psychological, social, and environmental factors that contribute to panic buying phenomena. An Agent-Based Model (ABM) is used to capture interactions between customers and simulate the complex dynamics of consumer panic buying behavior. This study explores the impact of different factors such as inventory levels, perceptions of scarcity, fear of shortage, media coverage, and the social network of individuals on consumers' purchasing choices. By developing an ABM that integrates these factors, this study seeks to improve our comprehension of panic buying in supply chains, thereby offering valuable insights for supply chain managers and policymakers to better manage and lessen the impact of such phenomena in the future. By simulating and analyzing panic buying behaviors, the aim is to guide the development of more resilient supply chain strategies.