Healthy diets and regional food production: Towards the 2030 targets of the European Green Deal

Healthy diets are a lever for improving human health and the sustainability of the food system. They are part of the European Green Deal, together with the aim of shortening food supply chains. This study aims to explore the impact of a shift towards healthy diets on the potential for regional food production and the achievement of selected European Green Deal targets by 2030 in the European Alpine Space. We first identify and compare the amounts of plant and animal raw products required for current and healthy food consumption based on national dietary guidelines, test their level of uncertainty and compare them to the EAT Lancet healthy reference diet. We develop three scenarios and assess their land use and environmental impacts: (a) a baseline scenario for 2030 with current dietary patterns, (b) a 2030 scenario with current dietary patterns, but assuming implementation of Green Deal land use policy measures, and (c) a 2030 scenario assuming healthy diets and implementation of Green Deal land use policy measures. The results suggest that healthy diets could reduce the land footprint by more than 45 % by reducing the need for cropland and grassland, freeing up space for other uses. In combination with land use policies, they could also reduce per capita greenhouse gas emissions (−45 %), eutrophication emissions (−42 %), freshwater withdrawals (−33 %), and food waste footprint (−38 %), while increasing food waste (+21 %) and carbon stock (+18 %). This study highlights the importance of coordinated policy action to achieve the environmental objectives of the European Green Deal. • Regionally produced healthy diets reduce the land footprint by more than 45 %. • Despite regional land use extensification, healthy food demand can be largely met. • Healthy diets reduce GHG/eutrophication emissions, water use, food waste footprint. • Ecosystem restoration significantly increases agricultural carbon stocks. • Agricultural surplus areas increase by 93 % under regionally produced healthy diets.