Simulation of Cropland in Guangxi Autonomous Region under Different Future Scenarios of Changes in Landscape and Spatial Patterns

China's policy on cropland protection is a fundamental agricultural policy, which supports the state's sustainable development goals of eradicating hunger, achieving food security, improving nutrition and promoting sustainable agriculture. We combined the SD and PLUS models to construct an integrated framework for simulating future areas of cropland and their spatial distribution. We simulated the spatial and temporal changes in cropland in Guangxi Autonomous Region under different scenarios in 2030, 2040 and 2050. The results showed that the simulation error for historical cropland areas using the SD model was ≤3%. The PLUS model results for the spatial distribution of cropland in Guangxi in 2020 was 0.92 for overall accuracy (OA), 0.77 for Kappa, and 0.33 for the figure of merit (FOM). Thus, the integrated model was suitable for simulating cropland in Guangxi under different future scenarios. Analyses of the landscape index, standard deviation ellipse and hot spots were performed to examine the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of Guangxi's cropland under different future scenarios in more detail. They indicated that the area of cropland in Guangxi under different future scenarios gradually decreased, with the SSP245 scenario showing the greatest decrease in the area of cropland. Cropland in Guangxi showed a westward shift under different future scenarios, which was most rapid under the SSP245 scenario. cropland remained fragmented from 2000 to 2020, with fragmentation intensifying under different future scenarios, while cropland shifted to western rocky, desertified and poverty-affected areas. In sum, the results show that the SD-PLUS integrated model can predict the change trend of cropland in Guangxi under different future scenarios, which facilitates optimisation of the spatial allocation and planning of cropland and provides key data for implementing future cropland protection policies in Guangxi.