Tradeoffs between crop yield, agricultural residue burning, and groundwater depletion in India's wheat belt

Wheat is a staple crop in India, but yields have stagnated and are projected to further decline due to climate change. One way to increase yields is to ensure timely sowing, which allows the crop to mature prior to damaging heat stress at the end of the growing season. Using novel satellite data products that we developed along with a unique village-level dataset that we collated across India's main wheat belt, the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), we examine the extent of late sowing, its drivers, and the potential tradeoffs of earlier wheat sowing on yield and sustainability outcomes. We find that sowing dates are largely delayed in the eastern IGP, and this is primarily driven by delayed transplanting of the previous rice crop, reduced access to groundwater irrigation, and delayed monsoon onset. Considering tradeoffs, we find that early wheat sowing is associated with higher yields across the IGP, but also with increased groundwater depletion in the western IGP and increased rice residue burning across most of the IGP. We use these results along with maps of where rice residue burning is occurring and where groundwater is over-exploited to identify location-specific interventions that can enhance early wheat sowing sustainably across the IGP. Such actionable information can be used by policymakers and practitioners to promote the most effective interventions that simultaneously enhance early wheat sowing, increased wheat yields, and environmental sustainability in the world's most populous nation.