Effects of Climate Variables and Human Activities on Groundwater Level Fluctuations in Unconsolidated Sedimentary Aquifers: A Data-Driven Approach

Groundwater level (GWL) in unconfined aquifers is highly susceptible to climate variables and human activities, exhibiting nonlinear fluctuations; these can further contribute to or exacerbate environmental hazards, such as land subsidence. Understanding the relationship between GWL changes and external conditions is essential for effective groundwater resource management and ecological protection. However, this relationship remains unclear and variable. This study systematically analyzes the correlations between climate and human factors and GWLs, using data from monitoring stations in the unconsolidated sedimentary aquifers of Beijing, China. It evaluates the importance of influencing factors on GWL simulation accuracy and tests how different inputs affect simulation performance. The results indicate that human factors are more strongly correlated with GWLs, yet climate factors hold higher importance scores. In GWL simulations, different input variables yield varying accuracy, with the inclusion of precipitation notably decreasing simulation precision because of its lagged or indirect effects on groundwater levels. The variation in accuracy across monitoring stations further suggests that the primary differences may stem from the GWL data itself. These findings underscore the need for high-resolution, localized data and tailored input selection to improve GWL projections and inform adaptive water-resource strategies under changing climatic and anthropogenic pressures.