Orbit Prediction Methods for ONEWEB Constellation

This study aims to enhance Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite orbit prediction accuracy. We propose the Precise Orbit Determination with Optimized Perturbations (PODOP) method, considering Earth’s non-spherical gravity, atmospheric drag, etc., and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based approach for orbital element time series. Validation shows that PODOP’s 10-day median error is 8.1 km (19% larger than Simplified General Perturbations (SGP4)’s 10.1 km) and LSTM’s 10-day median error is 5.3 km, outperforming SGP4 (48.5 km) and PODOP and improving constellation management and collision prevention.