Examining the dynamic effects of carbon emissions and technological innovations on agricultural exports and imports in Africa: a method of moments quantile regression approach

This study examines the dynamic effects of CO2 emissions, and technological innovations on agricultural exports and imports across 41 African nations from 1990 to 2022. Employing the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR), the analysis reveals heterogeneous impacts across different trade performance levels. Results indicate that CO2 emissions exhibit a dual effect, positively influencing exports in high-performing economies due to industrial farming practices but negatively affecting imports in environmentally vulnerable regions like North and Middle Africa. Technological innovations consistently enhance trade performance, though benefits vary regionally due to infrastructure disparities. Agricultural land availability significantly boosts exports, particularly in underutilized regions, while economic growth drives both export capacity and import demand. Robustness checks using FMOLS and DOLS confirm the stability of the model. The study underscores the need for sustainable land management, low-carbon technologies, and digital infrastructure to balance trade growth with environmental sustainability.