Prediction of GST Collection in India Using ARIMA Model

The ARIMA model, using the Box-Jenkins methodology, has been used to provide time series forecasting for Gross GST collections for 2025. The data from the Ministry of Finance from January 2017 to December 2024 was analyzed to find the best parameters for the ARIMA approach. Accurate GST forecasts help the government enhance tax administration and ensure economic stability. The study demonstrates the reliability of ARIMA in explaining historic occurrences and forecasting future tax revenues. The study emphasizes the need for forecasting models to continually improve by incorporating key macroeconomic variables, fostering India's strong fiscal management system and a long-term economic strategy.