Long-Term Load Forecasting Method for Electric Vehicles Aimed at Regulation Capability Assessment

This paper focuses on the charging load scale and regulation capability assessment of electric vehicles (EVs) in a certain region. Based on existing data samples, a long-term load forecasting and regulation capability analysis model for distinguishing different charging scenarios was established. Firstly, based on the common characteristics and evolution rules of charging load in different vehicle models and scenarios (distinguishing residential areas and public stations), a structured charging load forecasting model was established. Secondly, based on the modeling of a demand respond regulation as an example, a prediction method for the theoretical potential and achievable regulation capability of charging loads participating in grid regulation was proposed. This model can be used for regional power grid charging demand analysis and supports the assessment of demand-side regulation capability in the power system. As data samples are updated, the parameter settings in the proposed method can be continuously revised to improve the accuracy of future predictions.