Modelling Stock Price Dynamics of Adani Enterprises: An ARMAX Approach to Market Sentiment Analysis

In the light of contemporary finance, it becomes imperative to understand how stock prices change. This study aims to observe changes in the external market that focuses on the stock prices of Adani Enterprises, particularly how they reacted to major news events like the Hindenburg Research report. The 107 data points have been looked into using an ARMAX model. Through this research study, the influence of past trends and outside factors on these <tex xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">$\mathbf{1 0 7}$</tex> data points is measured. It is shown that stock prices are generally persisting and tend to remain stable with significant contributions from both autoregressive and moving average factors that dictate the change in price. The model reflects how negative sentiments over the Hindenburg report have a big hand to play within investor psychology and in the operation of the stocks. Diagnostic metrics like R-squared values and Akaike Information Criterion really show that this model is strong. The findings call up the vulnerability that emerging markets face from shocks that come from outside and the need to strengthen transparency and regulation. These are important lessons for investors, policymakers, and regulators who wish to effectively navigate and stabilize unpredictable financial situations.