The value and influence of information during periods of uncertainty using leaflets and social network: the case of refugees in Greece

This study investigates the impact of information dissemination—both physical and digital—on refugee behavior during periods of uncertainty, through the lens of two pivotal crises in Greece. The first case examines the 2016 Idomeni incident, where leaflets directly influenced thousands of refugees’ decisions amid border closures. The second case leverages sentiment analysis of social media activity during the 2020 Evros border events to assess how online discourse shaped public emotion and behavior. By combining qualitative field observation with quantitative sentiment tracking, this study demonstrates the evolving mechanics of influence: from printed propaganda to algorithm-amplified emotional signals. Findings highlight how fear, hope, and disinformation are weaponized across mediums to mobilize or manipulate vulnerable populations. The implications extend to psychological operations, crisis communication, and ethical considerations in information warfare.