Extreme Value Assessment of Ice Loading on Sloping Structures Based on Ice Property Distributions

Abstract This study aims to conduct a comprehensive extreme value assessment of ice loading on sloping structures, focusing specifically on precise estimations of extreme ice load conditions. By examining the variations in ice properties, such as flexural strength and thickness, in relation to sloping structures, the study analyzes the sensitivity of extreme ice loading. The investigation examines upward-sloping configurations, which reflect realistic structural conditions. A Nataf transform is applied to establish correlations among the primary parameters influencing ice loading, allowing for a more robust and accurate analysis. Furthermore, the sampling of ice properties is performed through Monte Carlo simulation, which facilitates the generation of diverse ice load scenarios across a range of conditions. The analytical framework for estimating ice loading is based on ISO standards, widely accepted in the Arctic offshore industry for their reliability and consistency, thereby enhancing the study’s methodological rigor. As a result, stronger correlations among ice loading parameters increase uncertainty in load estimations, resulting in elevated extreme load values on sloping structures, regardless of their orientation. This heightened sensitivity highlights the crucial importance of accounting for correlations among ice properties when evaluating extreme load conditions on inclined surfaces, thereby contributing to safer, more resilient engineering practices in Arctic environment.