Analysis of Extreme Weather Factors for Ship Contact Accidents In Ports Over the Past 25 Years

Abstract Ship contact accidents in ports and critical fairways represent a critical challenge, with significant implications for safety, operational continuity, economic and environmental sustainability. This research systematically analyzes contributing factors to such accidents, with a distinct emphasis on extreme weather events. The objectives of this study are twofold- (1) to identify and classify key risk factors including those stemming from extreme weather, human error, operational failures, and organizational influences and (2) to rank these factors to prioritize interventions for effective risk mitigation. The study employs a dual-methodological approach combining the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). HFACS is used to classify contributing factors into a hierarchical five-level framework namely Unsafe Acts, Preconditions for Unsafe Acts, Unsafe Supervision, Organizational Influences, and External Factors. This framework is tailored to maritime contact accidents and incorporates 24 distinct contributing factors identified from global accident investigation reports. Among these factors, procedural gaps, communication failures, and lack of situational awareness emerge as dominant contributors. Extreme weather events, such as high winds and storm surges, whilst modest, are found to have disproportionately severe consequences, accounting for 14 of the 72 analyzed contact incidents, equivalent to 19.4%. The AHP further quantifies the importance of these factors, and the analysis revealed the need to also prioritize extreme weather risks, given their potential to trigger cascading operational disruptions, economic losses, and environmental degradation. These findings highlight the necessity for enhanced risk assessment frameworks and targeted mitigation strategies to reinforce port safety and resilience.