Impact of June and July Rainfall on Seasonal Monsoon Performance in India

This study examines the relationship between monthly rainfall patterns in June, July and the pre-monsoonal rainfall (June+July) overall seasonal performance of the Indian southwest monsoon (June to September). Using data spanning 1901–2015, the analysis highlights the influence of early monsoon rainfall on seasonal totals. Findings indicate that deficit or excess rainfall in June and July strongly correlates with below- or above-average seasonal rainfall. The study further reveals that rainfall deficiencies in these months are frequently associated with El Niño events, whereas La Niña years tend to exhibit above-normal seasonal rainfall. The persistence of circulation anomalies formed in June is proposed as a key factor influencing seasonal monsoon variability.