Earth system responses under a global 2 °C-target scenario aligned with China’s carbon neutrality pledge

Abstract Achieving the Paris Agreement’s 2 °C target demands regionally tailored climate policies and proven negative emission strategies. Here, we use a novel SSP2-com scenario that integrates updated emissions trajectories, China’s carbon neutrality pledge, and mid-to-late 21st century carbon dioxide removal (CDR) deployment to assess Earth system responses under a 2 °C-aligned pathway. Employing a state-of-the-art Earth system model, we demonstrate that SSP2-com limits end-of-century warming to 1.87 °C (below 2 °C), 0.51 °C and 1.47 °C lower than SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0, respectively. Despite a reduction in global carbon sinks, SSP2-com’s stringent mitigation avoids 0.08 °C and 0.29 °C of warming relative to SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0, respectively, attributed to China’s accelerated decarbonization. Our findings suggest that combining ambitious regional action (e.g. China’s 2060 net-zero goal) with global CDR deployment provides a critical pathway to stabilize below 2 °C, yet underscores unresolved risks from uneven cooling efficacy and ecosystem feedbacks. This work advances scenario design by reconciling national climate pledges with global targets, offering actionable insights for policymakers to prioritize equity-driven mitigation.