Machine Learning-Based Surrogate Ensemble for Frame Displacement Prediction Using Jackknife Averaging

High-fidelity finite element analysis (FEA) plays a key role in structural engineering by enabling accurate simulation of displacement, stress, and internal forces under static loads. However, its high computational cost limits applicability in real-time control, iterative design, and large-scale uncertainty quantification. Surrogate modeling provides a computationally efficient alternative by learning input–output mappings from precomputed simulations. Yet, the performance of individual surrogates is often sensitive to data distribution and model assumptions. To enhance both accuracy and robustness, we propose a model averaging framework based on Jackknife Model Averaging (JMA) that integrates six surrogate models: polynomial response surfaces (PRSs), support vector regression (SVR), radial basis function (RBF) interpolation, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM), and Random Forest (RF). Three ensembles are formed: JMA1 (classical models), JMA2 (tree-based models), and JMA3 (all models). JMA assigns optimal convex weights using cross-validated out-of-fold errors without a meta-learner. We evaluate the framework on the Static Analysis Dataset with over 300,000 FEA simulations. Results show that JMA consistently outperforms individual models in root mean squared error, mean absolute error, and the coefficient of determination, while also producing tighter, better-calibrated conformal prediction intervals. These findings support JMA as an effective tool for surrogate-based structural analysis.