A Three-Stage Stochastic–Robust Scheduling for Oxy-Fuel Combustion Capture Involved Virtual Power Plants Considering Source–Load Uncertainties and Carbon Trading

Driven by the “dual carbon” goal, virtual power plants (VPPs) are the core vehicle for integrating distributed energy resources, but the multiple uncertainties in wind power, electricity/heat load, and electricity price, coupled with the impact of carbon-trading cost, make it difficult for traditional scheduling methods to balance the robustness and economy of VPPs. Therefore, this paper proposes an oxy-fuel combustion capture (OCC)-VPP architecture, integrating an OCC unit to improve the energy efficiency of the system through the “electricity-oxygen-carbon” cycle. Ten typical scenarios are generated by Latin hypercube sampling and K-means clustering to describe the uncertainties of source and load probability distribution, combined with the polyhedral uncertainty set to delineate the boundary of source and load fluctuations, and the stepped carbon-trading mechanism is introduced to quantify the cost of carbon emission. Then, a three-stage stochastic–robust scheduling model is constructed. The simulation based on the arithmetic example of OCC-VPP in North China shows that (1) OCC-VPP significantly improves the economy through the synergy of electric–hydrogen production and methanation (52% of hydrogen is supplied with heat and 41% is methanated), and the cost of carbon sequestration increases with the prediction error, but the carbon benefit of stepped carbon trading is stabilized at the base price of 320 DKK/ton; (2) when the uncertainty is increased from 0 to 18, the total cost rises by 45%, and the cost of purchased gas increases by the largest amount, and the cost of energy abandonment increases only by 299.6 DKK, which highlights the smoothing effect of energy storage; (3) the proposed model improves the solution speed by 70% compared with stochastic optimization, and reduces cost by 4.0% compared with robust optimization, which balances economy and robustness efficiently.