Genetic structure and global distribution patterns of the European grapevine moth under climate change

The European grapevine moth (EGVM) Lobesia botrana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), one of the most economically significant pests in global vineyards, has recently spread to China, a primary grape-producing region.However, the global distribution pattern of EGVM has unidentified by incorporating distribution data from China, and genetic diversity in new expansion risk regions remains to be investigated.This study aims to explore the population structure, demographic history, and potential geographic distributions of EGVM.This research integrates a genetic diversity analysis of CO with ecological niche models that utilize genetic and geographic data on EGVM's new spread risk areas for the first time.The results showed that the European population exhibited abundant haplotypes, while the haplotypes in invasive regions were relatively simple; a new haplotype (Hap24) was identified in China.Demographic history analysis of EGVM revealed an expanding population trend since the Last Glacial Maximum period.Its potential suitable habitats significantly overlap with grape-growing regions, particularly in Europe and China.It is anticipated that the suitable habitat for EGVM and distribution centroids in Europe and Asia are anticipated to higher latitude areas under future climates.Given the significant threat EGVM poses to grape-growing regions, these findings will aid in the global prevention and management in its expansion frontier areas.