Navigating Uncertainty: Trump and the Changing U.S. Policy for Agri-Food Trade

This paper draws implications of Trump's re-election for the U.S. agri-food sector and in turn international agri-food trade.It begins with a historical perspective on U.S. agri-food trade and its role in world markets.It then turns to a review of Trump policies during his first term as President, 2017-21, and the significant market losses American farmers suffered during his first term.Despite these losses, farmers were an important constituency in re-electing Donald Trump President in 2024.The next section discusses American farmer attitudes and the sources of their continuing support for Trump in the 2024 election.This is followed by a critical review of what Donald Trump fails to recognise (or chooses to ignore) about international economics and the agri-food sector.The paper then reviews Trump's policy announcements in the first four months back in office and draws inferences for American agriculture and the global agri-food sector in an environment that might best be described as navigating uncertainty.