Recent trends in agri-food trade and the future in a changing geopolitical environment

Global agri-food trade is undergoing profound structural change, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, climate-related shocks, and evolving market dynamics.Agri-food trade has become central to food security, shaping access and availability across diverse regions.Recent trends indicate a modest resurgence in agricultural trade as a share of total global trade and a growing regionalisation of trade flows.While the European Union and Brazil have consolidated surplus positions through strategic policy alignment and export diversification, the United States faces declining competitiveness, trade stagnation, and a widening import gap.Simultaneously, China has emerged as the leading global importer, reshaping trade relationships and intensifying competition among suppliers.The volatility induced by trade wars, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine has been compounded by the proliferation of trade restrictions, which pose acute risks for import-dependent countries.These developments underscore the fragility of global food systems and the strategic implications of trade balances.As trade agreements are reconfigured and economic nationalism rises, long-term sustainability will hinge on investments in domestic agricultural capacity, modern infrastructure, and multilateral cooperation.Future trajectories of agri-food trade will be shaped by structural shifts in global demand, persistent trade costs -including tariffs, transportation bottlenecks, and non-tariff measures -and the increasingly complex intersection of environmental regulation and market access.With agricultural production projected to increase by over 21% globally in the next decade, addressing the compound pressures of geopolitical fragmentation and climate change will be essential to maintaining stable, equitable, and sustainable food systems.