A Study on the Relationship between Youth Demographic Change and Changes in School Numbers: A Comparative Analysis of Korea and China

This study explores the relationship between population change and school quantity adjustment in South Korea and China. Based on data from 31 Chinese provincial-level regions and 228 Korean local governments, it calculates the rate of change in school numbers and youth population (ages 5~19) using CAGR and regression analysis, and visualizes regional differences by development level.The findings reveal a significant positive correlation between population change and school change in both countries. However, the adjustment mechanisms differ: Korea responds quickly to demographic shifts due to fiscal pressure at the local level, showing a decentralized and flexible model. In contrast, China’s school adjustments are more policy-driven and centrally coordinated, with demographic factors only partially explaining the change. Other structural elements, including fiscal allocation, regional development strategies, and urban-rural configurations, play a major role. Therefore, educational resource allocation should prioritize equity and accessibility, supported by flexible and regionally adaptive institutional mechanisms.This study provides policy insights for countries facing similar demographic challenges.