How to lose a referendum (in Ireland) – challenges of practical and symbolic constitutional change

Ireland has, in the past decade, been held up as a rare example of relatively successful practice of constitutional change referendums. The Irish example, featuring major success in referendums on same-sex marriage and abortion, and a novel Citizens’ Assembly (CA) process, suggested positive campaign practices and the development of a healthy ‘referendum culture’. In 2024, two supposedly liberalising referendums that were expected to pass – broadening the definition of the constitutional Family and inserting a constitutional protection of care – instead failed by huge margins in campaigns that had major problems. This possibly suggested a major shift in Irish politics or referendum culture, with a loss of public trust. The proposals, however, were also confusing, poorly drafted and poorly campaigned for, so the reasons for the failures may be more discrete and contained. In this article, I use a detailed account of these referendums as a lens to explore Ireland’s referendum practice and consider four possible challenges to Ireland’s referendum process suggested by these votes: a deep pathological suspicion of vague proposals, a declining information environment, a great difficulty in dealing with symbolic rather than practical changes, and the possible decline of public trust. These potential challenges are not unique to Ireland and are likely to beset referendums around the world. I conclude, however, that it is not clear from the 2024 experience alone that Irish referendum culture is in decline and that only time will tell if this is so. This serves as an apt reminder that a healthy referendum culture is at best a contingent and fragile thing that will always be in the process of change and always have an uncertain future.