Synchronized dynamics of dengue across the Americas
Dengue is endemic throughout the tropical areas of the Americas, but little is known about its regional dynamics. We examined seasonal and multiannual dengue trends across the Americas and possible underlying mechanisms using monthly dengue surveillance data from 14 countries. We collected monthly dengue case data from 241 subnational locations in 14 countries, ranging from 1985 to 2018 (6 to 22 years), and used wavelet analysis to isolate seasonal (8 to 16 months) and multiannual (17+ months) patterns. For each location, we assessed seasonal and multiannual dynamics as well as coherence and differences in timing of dengue cycles between 22,578 location pairs. We assessed patterns in coherence over time and space and compared these patterns to variations in temperature, rainfall, and El Niño Southern Oscillation patterns. Strong synchrony in dengue dynamics was identified across the region at the seasonal and multiannual scales. Seasonal dengue dynamics were associated with local climate patterns and dengue dynamics in nearby locations. High synchrony at multiannual scales indicated that large dengue epidemics were shared across the region, with an average temporal lag of only 6 months at distances of up to 10,000 kilometers. Synchrony of these epidemics likely reflects both regional climate variability and human movement. Observed dengue dynamics were not unique to individual countries in the Americas but rather extended across the region reflecting climatic and nonclimatic drivers. These findings can support the development of better early warning tools to support epidemic preparedness and response and underscore the importance of working collaboratively across borders.
Authors
- Michael A. Robert (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3705-0952)
- María Eugenia Grillet (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2922-6751)
- Melissa Marzán‐Rodríguez (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3553-2675)
- Demian Arturo Herrera Morban (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6678-6064)
- Laura L. Figueroa (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0655-8278)
- Mercy J. Borbor‐Cordova (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7418-141X)
- María F. Vincenti‐González (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1364-1774)
- Bernardo García‐Carreras (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0714-300X)
- Rachel Lowe (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3939-7343)
- Derek A. T. Cummings (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9437-1907)
- Gabriela Paz‐Bailey (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8478-4911)
- Esteban Ortiz‐Prado (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1895-7498)
- Manuel Colomé‐Hidalgo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4562-6491)
- Talía M. Quandelacy (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4059-577X)
- Anna M. Stewart‐Ibarra (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3383-4672)
- Isabel Rodríguez-Barraquer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6784-1021)
- Jomil M. Torres Aponte
- Rolando Masis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5228-6184)
- Guillermo Barrenechea
- Elizabet L. Estallo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6723-6929)
- Matías Piaggio (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4770-7604)
- Aníbal E. Carbajo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8792-7276)
- Michael A. Johansson (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5090-7722)
- Laura E. Adams (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4698-7720)
- Leslie Rollock
- Dania M. Rodríguez (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2837-3629)
- César V. Munayco (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7872-8913)
- Thaís dos Santos
Institutions
- Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ES)
- University of London (GB)
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
- Northeastern University (US)
- Université Libre de Bruxelles (BE)
- University Medical Center Groningen (NL)
- Johns Hopkins University (US)
- Colorado School of Public Health (US)
- Universidad Nacional de Córdoba (AR)
- University of California, San Francisco (US)
- Escuela Superior Politecnica del Litoral (EC)
- National University of General San Martín (AR)
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (ES)
- Inter-American Institute (UY)
- Johns Hopkins Medicine (US)
- Puerto Rico Department of Health (PR)
- Instituto Tecnológico de Santo Domingo (DO)
- University of Florida (US)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for the Americas (US)
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- International Union for Conservation of Nature (United States) (US)
- Universidad de Las Américas (EC)
- Centro Nacional de Epidemiología (ES)
- Ministry of Public Health and Social Assistance (GT)
- National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (US)
- Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública (BR)
- Direccion General de Epidemiologia (MX)
- Ministerio de Salud (SV)
- Ministry of Health (BB)
- Universidad Psicología Industrial Dominicana (DO)
- Ministry of Health (PE)
- Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal (AR)
- University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus (US)
- Universidad Central de Venezuela (VE)
- Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (ES)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Science Translational Medicine
- Published
- 2025-08-20
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1126/scitranslmed.adq4326
- Citations
- 4
- Primary Topic
- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 7.51