Academic selectivity and student progression: do restricted-access degree programs lead to better outcomes?

Abstract Policymakers in many developed countries are focused on increasing university participation, but higher enrolment rates do not necessarily lead to better degree completion rates. One proposed solution to address the quantity-quality tradeoff is implementing selective admission policies to ensure that incoming students meet a minimum quality standard. However, the empirical evidence regarding the effects of these policies on students’ academic performance and progression is scarce and yields mixed results. This paper aims to fill this gap by assessing the impact of admission tests on students’ academic progression. We contribute to the literature by attempting to establish a causal relationship between attending selective higher education degree courses and students’ outcomes by focusing on the Italian case, characterized by comparably high dropouts and delayed graduations. We use longitudinal data from the “Family Background, Education Beliefs, and Higher Education Participation” project in Italy, providing us with a rich covariates dataset. We employ propensity score matching techniques to account for the potential selection bias, complemented by sensitivity analysis. Our findings highlight a clear link between institutional selectivity and improved academic progression (higher number of credits attained in the first year), with students with a higher propensity to enroll in selective courses benefiting from attending such courses.