Time-scenario assessment of football interventions under contradictory dilemmas

Purpose The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of two public safety interventions implemented in Pernambuco, Brazil – banning alcohol sales and restricting organized fan groups (torcidas organizadas) inside football stadiums. A novel methodology for constructing time scenarios and assessing contradictory dilemmas is proposed to support the effective implementation of public sanctions and justice policy on crowd control and sport-related violence. Design/methodology/approach The study uses a three-step time scenario methodology using autoregressive moving average models with regressors and hypothesis tests to predict the past under a counterfactual condition – estimating what would have occurred without the intervention. The analysis covers over a decade of match-day violence data, allowing for a robust evaluation of each policy’s contribution. Findings Results show that both the alcohol ban and the prohibition of organized fan groups had no statistically significant effect on reducing violent behavior around football stadiums. The ineffectiveness of the gang restriction is largely attributed to weak enforcement practices, such as reliance on visual identification through fan apparel. Similarly, the alcohol ban’s impact may have been undermined by other endogenous or exogenous determinants. Practical implications The findings suggest that legal interventions alone – particularly those lacking rigorous enforcement mechanisms – may not effectively curb football-related violence. Policymakers and law enforcement agencies should reconsider blanket bans and instead focus on integrated strategies that include spatial policing, community engagement, targeted intelligence on high-risk groups and the effects of other determinants of violent behavior in young sport spectators. Originality/value This study offers a novel construction and application of time scenario analysis to the context of sport-related violence and criminal justice interventions, expanding traditional approaches to policy evaluation. Modeling counterfactual outcomes in the past rather than the future provides a unique empirical lens for assessing the real impact of interventions where randomized control is unfeasible. The dual assessment of alcohol bans and fan club restrictions within a single analytical framework contributes original evidence to an ongoing debate in both academic and policy circles about how best to address crowd violence in football cultures.