Assessing the impact of land use and land cover change on soil erosion potential in Gimbora river catchment of Gubalafto Woreda, Amhara Region, Ethiopia

Soil erosion, along with changes in land use and land cover (LULC), is a critical environmental issue in developing countries like Ethiopia. However, there is a lack of information on how these changes affect soil erosion in the study area. Understanding this relationship is crucial for effective watershed management planning. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the impact of LULC change on soil erosion in Gimbora river catchment, north highland of Ethiopia during the past three decades (1994–2024). To do this, Landsat images of 1994, 2009 and 2024 were used. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm was applied to classify the images into different LULC types. The Kappa coefficient values for the classified images were 90.78%, 93.01% and 95.38% for the years 1994, 2009 and 2024, respectively. The potential risk of soil erosion during the study period was determined using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation. Analysis of the change in soil loss resulting from LULC change was conducted by overlaying pixel-based maps of soil erosion intensity with land use and land cover maps. The study found that from 1994 to 2024, agricultural land, settlement, and riverbed areas expanded by 25.56%, 331.47%, and 2.91%, respectively, while forest and grazing lands declined by 3.67% and 29.84%. These changes contributed to an increase in mean annual soil erosion from 34.71 to 39.07 ton ha−1 year−1.This significant change to agricultural land and settlement causes a noticeable increment of the soil erosion. To reduce this in the study watershed, an evidence-based land use and land cover management plan should be implemented.