Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity and Zonal Adaptation Strategies for Agricultural Risks of Compound Dry and Hot Events in China’s Middle Yangtze River Basin

Compound dry and hot events or extremes (CDHEs) have emerged as major climatic threats to agricultural production and food security in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (MRYRB), a critical grain-producing region in China. However, agricultural risks associated with CDHEs, incorporating both natural and socio-economic factors, remain poorly understood in this area. Using a Hazard-Exposure-Vulnerability (HEV) framework integrated with a weighting quantification method and supported by remote sensing technology and integrated geographic data, we systematically assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of agricultural CDHE risks and corresponding crop responses in the MRYRB from 2000 to 2019. Results indicated an increasing trend in agricultural risks across the region, particularly in the Poyang Lake Plain (by 21.9%) and Jianghan Plain (by 9.9%), whereas a decreasing trend was observed in the Dongting Lake Plain (by 15.2%). Spatial autocorrelation analysis further demonstrated a significant negative relationship between gross primary production (GPP) and high agricultural risks of CDHEs, with a spatial concordance rate of 52.6%. These findings underscore the importance of incorporating CDHE risk assessments into agricultural management. To mitigate future risks, we suggest targeted adaptation strategies, including strengthening water resource management and developing multi-source irrigation systems in the Poyang Lake Plain, Dongting Lake, and the Jianghan Plain, improving hydraulic infrastructure and water source conservation capacity in northern and southwestern Hunan Province, and prioritizing regional risk-based adaptive planning to reduce agricultural losses. Our findings rectify the longstanding assumption that hydrological abundance inherently confers robust resistance to compound drought and heatwave stresses in lacustrine plains.