Balancing the relationship between anthropogenic-natural water and land resources to address External Shocks and Internal Disturbances

Balancing economic and social development with ecosystem sustainability has become a key challenge in promoting sustainable regional development, especially in arid inland river zones with limited resources. Using multi-source data and virtual water theory, we assessed the matching of water and land resources in the inland river zone of Xinjiang, China. The results show that the increase in total oasis area is accompanied by opposite economic and ecosystem trends. Artificial oasis area and economic water use increased, while natural oasis area and ecological water use decreased. The degree of artificial water and land matching shows a spatial pattern of “South Xinjiang > East Xinjiang > North Xinjiang”. The degree of match between natural water and land is “high in the north and south, low in the center”, with “low values clustered and high values dispersed”. We used the coupled coordination degree model to examine the level of coupled economic-ecological coordinated development in Xinjiang's inland river areas from 1990 to 2020, and explored its influencing factors using correlation analysis. We found that the degree of coordination between the economy and ecology increased from 0.42(borderline disorder) to 0.74(moderate coordination), and generally showed an upward trend of coupling. In 2000, the coupling coordination degree was 0.56, which was a critical year for the transition from a state of disorder(coupled coordination degree≤0.5) to a state of coordination(coupled coordination degree>0.5). Increased levels of water use(R 2 = 0.3992, P < 0.05) and agricultural inputs(R 2 = 0.3998, P < 0.01) can effectively improve the level of coupled coordination. Through dynamic analysis and factor identification, our study provides a fresh perspective on sustainable development practices in Xinjiang in both economic and ecological terms, a case that is equally applicable to other arid regions of the world. • Analyze the area and structure of oasis and their transformation process in the inland river region of XJ. • Assess the matching status of water and soil resources covering both artificial and natural dimensions based on AWF and EWD. • Constructing models to explore the evolution of coupled coordination relationships between river basins. • Discuss important factors affecting the level of coupling coordination and spatial spillover effects.