Optimizing Spatial Pattern of Water Conservation Services Using Multi-Scenario Land Use/Cover Simulation and Bayesian Network in China’s Saihanba Region

Optimizing the spatial pattern of water conservation services (WCSs) is essential for enhancing regional water retention and promoting sustainable water resource management. The Saihanba region, a critical ecological barrier in northern China, has experienced severe degradation due to historical over-logging, leading to weakened WCS functions. This study used remote sensing techniques to interpret land use/land cover change (LULC) and combined it with meteorological and basic ecological data to assess changes in WCS capacity in the Saihanba region, China, under multiple 2035 scenarios using CA-Markov and Bayesian network models. The Bayesian belief network identified priority areas for spatial optimization. Results showed the following: (1) The spatial distribution patterns of WCSs showed a strong dependence on land-use types, with both forest and grassland areas demonstrating superior water conservation capacity compared to other land cover categories; (2) although total WCS capacity varied across scenarios, spatial distribution remained consistent—high-value zones were mainly in the south and central-east, while lower values occurred in the west; and (3) WCS areas were categorized into key optimization, ecological protection, and general management zones. Notably, the Sandaohekou Forest Farm and the western Qiancengban Forest Farm emerged as critical areas requiring urgent optimization. These findings offer practical guidance for spatial planning, ecological protection, and water resource governance, supporting long-term WCS sustainability in the region. The study also contributes to cleaner production strategies by aligning ecosystem service management with sustainable development goals.