Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Distributions of Melliferous Plant Species on the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico: Implications for Conservation Planning

Climate change is altering environmental conditions, which can, in turn, change the geographic distribution and flowering patterns of plant species, affecting both the plants themselves and their pollinators. The responses of melliferous plant species to climate change in southeastern Mexico are poorly understood, which hinders an accurate assessment of their vulnerability and the resulting ecological impacts. As understanding the mechanisms that influence the distribution and susceptibility of these species is essential, the present study examined how climate change affects their potential distribution areas and spatial distribution patterns. This information will serve as reference data for the implementation of conservation strategies and inform the selection of species for reforestation. Ecological niche models were used to estimate the potential distributions of 92 melliferous species under both current environmental conditions and two climate change scenarios projected for the 2041–2060 period (SSP245 and SSP585). Changes in distribution patterns were then assessed by evaluating the range size of each species and analyzing the spatio–temporal trends in species richness. The results revealed that suitable habitats shifted for approximately 80% of melliferous species, with more significant habitat loss observed under the SSP585 scenario than under SSP245. Although a significant decrease in melliferous plant species richness was expected in future scenarios, richness was slightly higher (by 10% for SSP245 and 5% for SSP585) than that observed under current environmental conditions. Under SSP245 conditions, species richness areas expanded to encompass almost the entire region, although this contrasted drastically with the SSP585 scenario, where areas with the highest concentration of species richness contracted significantly and areas with low species richness expanded. These projections are of potential use for conservationists and environmental management authorities, providing crucial insights into the future distributions of several melliferous plant species in the region, the potential impacts of climate change on their habitats, and the vulnerability of threatened species to changing climatic conditions.