Higher Emissions Scenarios Increase Wildland–Urban Interface Fire Hazard in China

Climate change has intensified the occurrence of wildfires, increasing their frequency and intensity worldwide, and threatening sustainable development through ecological and socioeconomic impacts. Understanding the driving factors behind wildland–urban interface (WUI) fire events and predicting future wildfire hazards in WUI areas are essential for effective wildfire management and sustainable land-use planning. In this study, we developed a WUI fire hazard prediction model for China using machine learning techniques. Diagnostic attribution analysis was employed to identify key drivers of WUI fire hazards. The results revealed that the random forest-based WUI fire hazard model outperformed other models, demonstrating strong generalization capability. SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis revealed that meteorological factors are the primary drivers of WUI fire hazards. These factors include temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. We further examined the evolution of WUI fire hazards under historical and future climate change scenarios. During the historical baseline period (1985–2014), regions classified as moderate and high hazards were concentrated in southern China. These regions include East China, South Central China, and Southwest China. Climate change exacerbates future WUI fire hazards in China. Projections under the high emission scenario (SSP5–8.5) indicate a rapid increase in WUI fire hazard indices in northern China by the end of the 21st century. Concurrently, the gravity center of high hazard areas is predicted to shift northward, accompanied by a substantial expansion in their area coverage. These findings highlight an urgent need to reorient fire management resources toward northern China under high-emission scenarios. Our findings establish a predictive framework for WUI fire hazards and emphasize the urgency of implementing climate-adaptive management strategies aligned with future hazard patterns. These strategies are critical for enhancing sustainability by reducing fire-related ecological and socioeconomic losses in WUI areas.