Brief communication: A new methodology for extreme value analysis in the wind industry

Abstract. In the wind industry, estimating extreme wind speeds over a 50-year period using one year of data presents challenges due to the limited representation of extreme events. This study proposes a methodology that combines measurements from Cabauw (The Netherlands) with the ASPIRE 100x100 m horizontal resolution large-eddy simulation. Using 20 years of Cabauw measurements as a reference, we compared four methods to estimate the 50-year wind speed (Vref ). The results show that combining ASPIRE with one year of measurements improves Vref estimates, matching the 20-year reference within 3 %. With these promising results, our aim is to apply this methodology to 12-month wind measurement campaigns from the wind industry.

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Published
2025-08-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-128
Primary Topic
Wind Energy Research and Development
Type
article
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Brief communication: A new methodology for extreme value analysis in the wind industry

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Brief communication: A new methodology for extreme value analysis in the wind industry

Martin Koning, Laury Renac, Marieke Dirksen, Bernard Postema, Joseph Jutras, Wouter Pustjens
article en

Abstract

Abstract. In the wind industry, estimating extreme wind speeds over a 50-year period using one year of data presents challenges due to the limited representation of extreme events. This study proposes a methodology that combines measurements from Cabauw (The Netherlands) with the ASPIRE 100x100 m horizontal resolution large-eddy simulation. Using 20 years of Cabauw measurements as a reference, we compared four methods to estimate the 50-year wind speed (Vref ). The results show that combining ASPIRE with one year of measurements improves Vref estimates, matching the 20-year reference within 3 %. With these promising results, our aim is to apply this methodology to 12-month wind measurement campaigns from the wind industry.

Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (NL), Royal HaskoningDHV (Netherlands) (NL), J.M. Burgerscentrum (NL), Isala (NL)
Openalex Percentile: Top 71%
Wind Energy Research and Development
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