Forecasting 21-cm power spectrum sensitivity to dark matter–baryon scattering

ABSTRACT We explore the potential of upcoming 21-cm interferometric observations to probe interacting dark matter (IDM). We focus on scenarios where the dark matter–baryon scattering cross-section scales as $\sigma (v) =\sigma _{0} v^n$, with $\sigma _{0}$ being the normalization constant, v the relative velocity between dark matter and baryons, and n characterizing the velocity dependence. Specifically, we emphasize two cases: Coulomb-like interaction ($n = -4$) and velocity-independent interaction ($n = 0$). Using detailed simulations of the 21-cm power spectrum and the Fisher matrix formalism, we forecast the sensitivity of the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA), which targets the frequency range 50–225 MHz, to both IDM and astrophysical parameters. We marginalize over key astrophysical uncertainties, including star formation efficiency, ionizing photon escape fraction, and X-ray luminosity. Our results demonstrate that 21-cm power spectrum measurements can significantly improve sensitivity to IDM cross-section, with at least a factor of five improvement over global signal forecasts for the $n=0$ case, and more than an order of magnitude enhancement for the $n=-4$ scenario. These forecasts also significantly improve upon the existing bounds from cosmic microwave background and Milky Way satellite abundance observations. Our analysis also shows that the IDM cross-section exhibits no correlation with the parameters associated with star formation efficiency and ionizing photon escape fraction of Population-II stars. However, we find that the Coulomb-like cross-section is positively correlated with X-ray luminosity. Our results highlight the critical role of accounting for astrophysical uncertainties in obtaining robust inferences of dark matter–baryon interactions from future 21-cm power spectrum observations.