Geostatistical Analysis and Delineation of Groundwater Potential Zones for Their Implications in Irrigated Agriculture of Punjab Pakistan

Groundwater is essential for irrigated agriculture, yet its use remains unsustainable in many regions worldwide. In countries like Pakistan, the situation is particularly pressing. The irrigated agriculture of Pakistan heavily relies on groundwater resources owing to limited canal-water availability. The groundwater quality in the region ranges from good to poor, with the lower-quality water adversely affecting soil structure and plant health, leading to reduced agricultural productivity. The delineation of quality zones with respect to irrigation parameters is thus crucial for optimizing its sustainable use and management. Therefore, this research study was carried out in the Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) irrigation system to assess the spatial distribution of groundwater quality. The geostatistical analysis was conducted using Gamma Design Software (GS+) and the Kriging interpolation method was applied within a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework to generate groundwater-quality maps. Semivariogram models were evaluated for major irrigation parameters such as electrical conductivity (EC), residual sodium carbonate (RSC), and sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) to identify the best fit for various Ordinary Kriging models. The spherical semivariogram model was the best fit for EC, while the exponential model best suited SAR and RSC. Overlay analysis was performed to produce combined water-quality maps. During the pre-monsoon season, 17.83% of the LCC area demonstrated good irrigation quality, while 42.84% showed marginal quality, and 39.33% was deemed unsuitable for irrigation. In the post-monsoon season, 17.30% of the area had good irrigation quality, 44.53% exhibited marginal quality, and 38.17% was unsuitable for irrigation. The study revealed that Electrical Conductivity (EC) was the primary factor affecting water quality, contributing to 71% of marginal and unsuitable conditions. In comparison, the Sodium Adsorption Ratio (SAR) accounted for 38% and Residual Sodium Carbonate (RSC) contributed 45%. Therefore, it is recommended that groundwater in unsuitable zones be subjected to artificial recharge methods and salt-tolerated crops to enhance its suitability for agricultural applications.