Exploring NDVI Responses to Regional Climate Change by Leveraging Interpretable Machine Learning: A Case Study of Chengdu City in Southwest China

Regional extreme climate change remains a major environmental issue of global concern. However, in the context of the joint effects of urban expansion and the urban ecological environment, the responses of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to regional climate change and its driving mechanism remain unclear. This study takes Chengdu as an example, selects the air temperature (Ta), precipitation (P), wind speed (WS), and soil water content (SWC) within the period from 2001 to 2023 as influencing factors, and uses Theil-Sen median trend analysis and interpretable machine learning models (random forest (RF), BP neural network, support vector machine (SVM), and extreme gradient boosting (XG-Boost) models). The average absolute value of Shapley additive explanations (SHAPs) is adopted as an indicator to explore the key mechanism driving regional climate change in Chengdu in terms of NDVI changes. The analysis results reveal that the NDVI exhibited an extremely significant increasing trend during the study period (p = 8.6 × 10−6 < 0.001), and that precipitation showed a significant increasing trend (p = 1.2 × 10−4 < 0.001); however, the air temperature, wind speed, and soil-relative volumetric water content all showed insignificant increasing trends. A simulation of interpretable machine learning models revealed that the random forest (RF) model performed exceptionally well in terms of simulating the dynamics of the urban NDVI (R2 = 0.746), indicating that the RF model has an excellent ability to capture the complex ecological interactions of a city without prior assumptions. The dependence relationship between the simulation results and the main driving factors indicates that the Ta and P are the main factors affecting the NDVI changes. In contrast, the SWC and WS had relatively small influences on the NDVI changes. The prediction analysis results reveal that a monthly average temperature of 25 °C and a monthly average precipitation of approximately 130 mm are conducive to the stability of the NDVI in the study area. This study provides a reference for exploring the responses of NDVI changes to regional climate change in the context of urban expansion and urban ecological construction.