Dynamic Risk Assessment of Collapse Geological Hazards on Highway Slopes in Basalt Regions During Rainy Seasons

Anchored in the four-factor theory of natural hazard risk, this study presents a dynamic risk assessment of collapse geological hazards (CGHs) using the S3K highway slope in Changbai Korean Autonomous County, China, as a case study. Building on previous research, the methodological framework consists of three sequential stages: (1) critical indicators for CGHs in basalt regions are identified, with iron-staining anomalies—a hallmark of such terrains—innovatively integrated as a slope stability metric; (2) a system dynamics (SD) model is developed in Vensim to quantify dynamic feedback mechanisms, focusing on the “rock weathering–rainfall triggering–slope instability” nexus, and time-varying parameters are introduced to enable monthly-scale risk prediction; and (3) a 500 m × 500 m grid system is established using ArcGIS 10.4, and a computer program is developed to achieve SD-GIS coupling and calculate grid parameters. The information value method is then employed to determine risk thresholds, thereby completing CGH risk assessment and prediction. The results indicate that over the next five years, high-risk areas will exhibit spatial agglomeration when monthly rainfall exceeds approximately 130 mm (July and August). Conversely, when monthly rainfall is below around 60 mm, the entire region will display low or no risk. Model simulations reveal that risks during the rainy season over the next five years will exhibit insignificant variability, prompting simplification of the resultant cartography. Field validation corroborates the robustness of the model. This research overcomes the primary limitations of conventional static assessment models by improving the dynamic predictability and the applicability to basalt terrains. The integrated SD-GIS framework presents a novel methodological paradigm for dynamic CGH risk analysis and offers support for the formulation of targeted disaster mitigation strategies.