Transition's Harvest: The economics of green hydrogen use for fertilizer production in Kenya

As Kenya explores the potential of green hydrogen and its derivatives—such as green ammonia and fertilizer—this transition presents a critical opportunity to drive low-carbon industrial growth. But without deliberate planning, it could unintentionally increase farming costs, reduce crop yields, and strain the agricultural value chain. This report unpacks the economic, social, and structural challenges facing Kenya’s green fertilizer ambitions. It finds that green fertilizer remains approximately 20% more expensive than conventional alternatives, with the cost of capital alone making up over 33% of total production costs. Even as technology prices fall, green fertilizer is likely to remain unaffordable for many farmers unless bold policy and financial interventions are made. The report outlines practical recommendations to ensure green fertilizer adoption supports Kenya’s development goals without undermining farmer productivity or livelihoods.