Investigation of Long-Term Rainfall Analysis: Trends, Anomalies, and Implications for Operational Mission Planning at Integrated Test Range, Chandipur

Weather uncertainties have historically impacted missile and rocket operations, with minor atmospheric deviations leading to mission delays or failures. Understanding rainfall trends and variability is crucial for regions like India, where rainfall patterns directly impacts agriculture, infrastructure, and strategic operations. This study analyses 34 years (1990–2023) of annual and monthly rainfall data, focusing on trends, anomalies, and their implications for Eastern India, particularly for The Integrated Test Range (ITR) at Chandipur, Odisha for various mission planning activities. The investigation identifies a statistically significant declining trend in annual rainfall alongside notable inter-annual variability, especially during the monsoon season (June-September). Anomalous years such as 2005 (extreme high rainfall) and 2010 (record low rainfall) were detected, indicating deviations from the average annual rainfall. Seasonal analysis reveals a consistent decline in monsoon rainfall, corroborated by negative slopes in linear regression. Statistical tests like Shapiro-Wilk and Anderson-Darling confirm the normality of annual rainfall distribution, while autocorrelation analysis suggests weak temporal dependence, except at lag 2. These insights are particularly relevant for mission planning at ITR Chandipur, where atmospheric conditions play a critical role in missile and rocket testing. Crucial findings of the study reveal that days with high rainfall, such as those in June-October, could disrupt testing activities and should be considered. In contrast, days with lower rainfall, like those in dry months, may provide more favorable conditions for conducting tests. Moreover, the classification of days based on rainfall intensity offers a strategic advantage, enabling planners to schedule testing activities on days with minimal weather-related disruptions. The study underscores the importance of understanding long-term precipitation trends and highlights the potential integration of AIIML approaches for real-time decision-making. The findings have broader implications for climate adaptation strategies, water resource management, and operational planning in sensitive regions of Eastern India.