Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of carbon emissions in China’s provincial boundary areas via GIS and the spatial Durbin model

Abstract The issue of carbon emissions in China’s interprovincial border regions is crucial for achieving the nation’s carbon peaking and neutrality goals. This study aims to comprehensively analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon emissions in China’s interprovincial border counties from 2005 to 2017, identify their key influencing factors using spatial econometric models, and elucidate the associated spatial spillover effects. Within the STIRPAT model framework and using GIS as a platform, datasets of county-level carbon emissions and spatial weight matrices for China’s interprovincial border areas were analyzed. Maps and spatial data analysis methods were employed to identify spatiotemporal patterns of carbon emissions in these regions. Additionally, the spatial panel Durbin model was utilized to uncover the driving mechanisms of key controlling factors. The findings indicate that although border counties contribute only marginally to China’s total emissions, they exhibit stronger growth compared to non-border counties. Notably, the average emissions in eastern border regions are comparable to the combined emissions of central and western regions. Spatial analysis reveals higher emissions in the north and east, with a trend of bidirectional expansion. While overall disparities are decreasing, they remain significant. High-high (HH) and low-low (LL) clusters demonstrate significant positive spatial correlation. Carbon emissions in border counties show substantial positive spatial spillover effects. Various factors influence emissions differently: population tends to suppress local emissions, while economic growth increases emissions both locally and in neighboring areas. Technological advancement reduces emissions in both local and adjacent regions, and industrial structure plays a driving role. This research provides novel insights into the carbon emission dynamics of border regions and offers a scientific basis for formulating differentiated emission reduction policies.