Amazonian and Andean tree communities are not tracking current climate warming

Climate change is shifting species distributions, leading to changes in community composition and novel species assemblages worldwide. However, the responses of tropical forests to climate change across large-scale environmental gradients remain largely unexplored. Using long-term data over 66,000 trees of more than 2,500 species occurring over 3,500 m elevation along the hyperdiverse Amazon-to-Andes elevational gradients in Peru and Bolivia, we assessed community-level shifts in species composition over a 40+ y time span. We tested the thermophilization hypothesis, which predicts an increase in the relative abundances of species from warmer climates through time. Additionally, we examined the relative contributions of tree mortality, recruitment, and growth to the observed compositional changes. Mean thermophilization rates (TR) across the Amazon-to-Andes gradient were slow relative to regional temperature change. TR were positive and more variable among Andean forest plots compared to Amazonian plots but were highest at midelevations around the cloud base. Across all elevations, TR were driven primarily by tree mortality and decreased growth of highland (cool-adapted) species rather than an influx of lowland species with higher thermal optima. Given the high variability of community-level responses to warming along the elevational gradients, the high tree mortality, and the slower-than-warming rates of compositional change, we conclude that most tropical tree species, and especially lowland Amazonian tree species, will not be able to escape current or future climate change through upward range shifts, causing fundamental changes to composition and function in Earth's highest diversity forests.

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Publication Details

Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Published
2025-08-19
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2425619122
Citations
2
Primary Topic
Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
4.63

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article

Amazonian and Andean tree communities are not tracking current climate warming

Kenneth J. Feeley, S. S. Saatchi, Yadvinder Singh Malhi, Karina García‐Cabrera et al.
2 citations
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
4.63
article

Amazonian and Andean tree communities are not tracking current climate warming

Kenneth J. Feeley, S. S. Saatchi, Yadvinder Singh Malhi, Karina García‐Cabrera, Leslie Cayola, Jhonatan Sallo‐Bravo, Nigel C. A. Pitman, Oliver Lawrence Phillips, William Farfán-Ríos, Abel Monteagudo Mendoza, Norma Salinas, John Terborgh, Rodolfo Vásquez, Jonathan A. Myers, A C., Alex Nina, J. Sebastián Tello, M. Isabel Loza, Timothy R. Baker, Miles R. Silman, Percy Núñez Vargas
article en
2 citations

Abstract

Climate change is shifting species distributions, leading to changes in community composition and novel species assemblages worldwide. However, the responses of tropical forests to climate change across large-scale environmental gradients remain largely unexplored. Using long-term data over 66,000 trees of more than 2,500 species occurring over 3,500 m elevation along the hyperdiverse Amazon-to-Andes elevational gradients in Peru and Bolivia, we assessed community-level shifts in species composition over a 40+ y time span. We tested the thermophilization hypothesis, which predicts an increase in the relative abundances of species from warmer climates through time. Additionally, we examined the relative contributions of tree mortality, recruitment, and growth to the observed compositional changes. Mean thermophilization rates (TR) across the Amazon-to-Andes gradient were slow relative to regional temperature change. TR were positive and more variable among Andean forest plots compared to Amazonian plots but were highest at midelevations around the cloud base. Across all elevations, TR were driven primarily by tree mortality and decreased growth of highland (cool-adapted) species rather than an influx of lowland species with higher thermal optima. Given the high variability of community-level responses to warming along the elevational gradients, the high tree mortality, and the slower-than-warming rates of compositional change, we conclude that most tropical tree species, and especially lowland Amazonian tree species, will not be able to escape current or future climate change through upward range shifts, causing fundamental changes to composition and function in Earth's highest diversity forests.

Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesVol. 122(34)
Universidad Mayor de San Andrés (BO), University of Leeds (GB), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (US), Stockholm Environment Institute (GB), University of Miami (US), University of California, Los Angeles (US), Washington University in St. Louis (US), University of Missouri–St. Louis (US), Field Museum of Natural History (US), Missouri Botanical Garden (US), National University of Saint Anthony the Abbot in Cuzco (PE), University of Florida (US), Virginia Tech - Wake Forest University School of Biomedical Engineering & Sciences (US), Institute of Geography (KZ), Living Systems (United States) (US), Wake Forest University (US), Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú (PE), James Cook University (AU)
National Science Foundation, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, National Geographic Society, Natural Environment Research Council, European Research Council
Openalex Percentile: Top 5%
Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
4.63
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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