Scenario analysis of nitrogen surplus typologies in Europe shows that a 20% fertilizer reduction may fall short of 2030 EU Green Deal goals
The Farm to Fork (F2F) Strategy under the Green Deal aims to halve nutrient losses by 2030 in the European Union (EU). Here, using the nitrogen surplus as an indicator for nitrogen losses in agricultural areas, we explore a range of scenarios for nitrogen surplus reduction across EU landscapes. We identify four nitrogen surplus typologies, each responding differently to input reduction. A 20% decrease in synthetic fertilizer alone is projected to reduce the nitrogen surplus by only 10-16%, falling short of F2F goals. Specific top-down scenarios such as reducing synthetic fertilizer by 43% and animal manure by 4%, coupled with improved technological and management practices, can achieve a reduction of up to 30-45% in nitrogen surplus. Among the most ambitious scenarios, only a handful of EU countries (four to five) may meet the intended F2F nitrogen pollution targets. Achieving F2F goals requires region-specific strategies to reduce nitrogen use while improving efficiency and sustaining productivity.
Authors
- Masooma Batool (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1385-2512)
- Fanny Sarrazin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9928-9566)
- Andréas Musolff (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0115-1359)
- Rohini Kumar (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4396-2037)
- Xin Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1619-1537)
- Sabine Attinger (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7798-7080)
- Van Tam Nguyen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9111-4393)
Institutions
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (DE)
- University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (US)
- University of Potsdam (DE)
- Université Paris-Saclay (FR)
- Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Food
- Published
- 2025-08-19
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01210-2
- Citations
- 7
- Primary Topic
- Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 12.01
Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung
- Deutsche Gesellschaft für Erziehungswissenschaft
- Deutsches Zentrum für integrative Biodiversitätsforschung Halle-Jena-Leipzig
- Office of International Science and Engineering
- Division of Chemical, Bioengineering, Environmental, and Transport Systems