Spatial pattern and influencing factors of carbon budget based on land use in urban agglomerations in China

This paper aims to study the spatial distribution pattern and influencing factors of land use carbon budget in 19 urban agglomerations in China based on the "dual carbon" goal, and provide a theoretical basis for land use optimization and "dual carbon" decision-making in the development process of China's urban agglomerations. Based on land use data from 19 urban agglomerations in China in 2022, this study calculates the carbon budget for these agglomerations. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and cluster analysis are employed to study the spatial variation pattern of the carbon budget. Furthermore, the influencing factors of the carbon budget are explored from economic, demographic, and energy consumption perspectives, and a regression model for the carbon budget based on key influencing factors is constructed. Research has found that: (1) In 2022, the spatial pattern of the carbon budget across the 19 urban agglomerations in China exhibited characteristics of "higher carbon emissions in the east and lower in the west, higher carbon sequestration in the south and lower in the north." Based on the carbon budget distance, these agglomerations can be roughly clustered into five categories. (2) According to the hot spot analysis of the carbon budget, hot spots for carbon emissions are concentrated around the Bohai Rim in northern China, while hot spots for carbon sequestration are concentrated in northeastern, southeastern, and southwestern regions. (3) Energy consumption, population size, and GDP are the primary factors influencing carbon emissions, while net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation and precipitation are the main factors influencing carbon sequestration. In summary, the land use of urban agglomerations should be rationally planned, ecological protection should be emphasized, and the carbon sink capacity of urban agglomerations should be consolidated and improved. Formulate differentiated carbon emission reduction measures according to local conditions, focus on optimizing energy consumption and industrial structure, reasonably control the number of population, build urban green space, and give full play to the important role of vegetation in carbon absorption.