Analogies in revolt: How historical analogies shaped resistance in Iraq, 2003–2004

When and how does the past shape the present? Previous works have discussed the role of history, arguing that it can shape how religious or ethnic groups perceive each other during conflict. Yet which historical episodes influence the behavior of subnational groups and how remains understudied. Engaging with the literature on the role of analogies in foreign policy analysis, we consider which analogies communities are likely to use, the lessons derived from historical events, and how these analogies influence decisions to engage in armed mobilization. We argue communities’ analogies are based on prominent events from national or community narratives and may constrain community elites who are trying to persuade co-religionists or co-ethnics to participate in armed mobilization. Using the case of Iraq and the initial insurgency against US forces (2003–2004), we demonstrate that members of Iraq’s Sunni community viewed the 1920 anti-British revolt as a successful precedent for armed resistance while the Shi’ite community interpreted it as a cautionary tale, discouraging rebellion. This suggests that historical analogies can shape both community and elite behavior while improving our understanding of which historical events matter and how different communities interpret them.