Fight or unite? Exploring the link between consensus institutions, polarization, and political violence in 113 democracies over time (1900–2023)

Political violence poses an alarming threat to contemporary democracies and is often attributed to rising polarization. This paper investigates how democratic institutions moderate the relationship between identity-based polarization and violence, hypothesizing that this relationship depends upon a country’s institutional structure. Studying 113 democracies over time (1900−2023), we find that while identity-based polarization is associated with political violence, democracies with a federal structure and a rigid constitution show a significantly weaker relationship between polarization and violence. These results offer a rare positive perspective within polarization studies, showing that violence – polarization’s worst threat to democratic peaceful coexistence – is related to the institutional organization of conflict in society.